Project Management in Practice – Sixth edition

Project Management in Practice – Sixth edition
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jack r. Meredith, Scott M. Shafer, Samuel j. Mantel
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6 ديسمبر 2023
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206
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Project Management in Practice – Sixth edition
jack r. Meredith
Broyhill Distinguished Scholar and Chair in Operations,
Wake Forest University
Scott M. Shafer
Associate Dean and Professor of Management,
Wake Forest University
Samuel j. Mantel, jr. (deceased)
University of Cincinnati
C o n t e n t s
1 The World of ProjecT ManageMenT 1
1.1 What Is a Project? 1
Trends in Project Management 3
1.2 Project Management vs. general Management 4
Major differences 4
negotiation 5
1.3 What Is Managed? The Three goals of a Project 7
1.4 The life cycles of Projects 10
1.5 Selecting Projects To Meet organizational objectives 11
nonnumeric Selection Methods 12
numeric Selection Methods 13
1.6 The Project Portfolio Process 21
1.7 The Materials in this Text 25
review Questions 27
discussion Questions 27
exercises 28
Incident for discussion 28
case: friendly assisted living facility—1 29
case: handstar Inc. 30
Bibliography 32
2 The Manager, The organIzaTIon, and The TeaM 33
2.1 The PM’s roles 34
facilitator 34
communicator 36
Virtual Project Manager 39
Meetings, convener and chair 40
2.2 The PM’s responsibilities to the Project 41
acquiring resources 41
fighting fires and obstacles 42
leadership 42
negotiation, conflict resolution, and Persuasion 44
2.3 Selection of a Project Manager 46
credibility 47
Sensitivity 47
leadership, Style, ethics 47
ability to handle Stress 48
2.4 Project Management as a Profession 50
2.5 fitting Projects into the Parent organization 51
Pure Project organization 52
functional Project organization 53vi  •  Contents
Matrix Project organization 54
Mixed organizational Systems 57
The Project Management office and Project Maturity 57
2.6 The Project Team 59
Matrix Team Problems 61
Intrateam conflict 62
Integration Management 64
review Questions 66
discussion Questions 66
Incidents for discussion 67
case: friendly assisted living facility—2 68
case: The Quantum Bank 68
case: Southern care hospital 69
Bibliography 71
3 ProjecT acTIVITy and rISk PlannIng 74
3.1 from the Project charter to the Project Plan 74
3.2 The Planning Process—overview 76
3.3 The Planning Process—nuts and Bolts 77
The launch Meeting—and Subsequent Meetings 77
Sorting out the Project—The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) 80
extensions of the everyday WBS 83
3.4 More on the Work Breakdown Structure and other aids 86
The racI Matrix 86
a Whole‐Brain approach to Project Planning 88
The design Structure Matrix 91
agile Project Management 92
3.5 risk Management 94
review Questions 101
discussion Questions 101
exercises 102
Incidents for discussion 103
case: friendly assisted living facility—3 104
case: john Wiley & Sons 105
case: Samson University 106
Bibliography 107
4 BUdgeTIng The ProjecT 109
4.1 Methods of Budgeting 110
Top‐down Budgeting 112
Bottom‐Up Budgeting 113
4.2 cost estimating 113
Work element costing 114
The Impact of Budget cuts 114
an aside 116
activity versus Program Budgeting 118
4.3 Improving cost estimates 119Contents •  vii
forms 119
learning curves 119
other factors 123
4.4 Budget Uncertainty and Project risk Management 125
Budget Uncertainty 125
Project Budgeting in Practice 128
4.5 Project risk Simulation with crystal Ball® 129
considering disaster 136
review Questions 137
discussion Questions 137
exercises 138
Incidents for discussion 139
case: friendly assisted living facility Project Budget development—4 140
case: Photstat Inc. 142
case: Building the geddy’s dream house 143
Bibliography 144
5 SchedUlIng The ProjecT 145
5.1 Pert and cPM networks 146
The language of PerT/cPM 146
Building the network 147
finding the critical Path and critical Time 149
calculating activity Slack 151
doing It the easy Way—Microsoft Project (MSP) 152
5.2 Project Uncertainty and risk Management 155
calculating Probabilistic activity Times 155
The Probabilistic network, an example 156
once More the easy Way 158
The Probability of completing the Project on Time 159
Selecting risk and finding d 162
The case of the Unreasonable Boss 162
a Potential Problem: Path Mergers 163
5.3 Simulation 164
Incorporating costs into the Simulation analysis 166
Traditional Statistics versus Simulation 167
5.4 The gantt chart 170
The chart 170
5.5 extensions to PerT/cPM 172
Precedence diagramming 173
final Thoughts on the Use of These Tools 174
review Questions 175
discussion Questions 176
exercises 176
discussion exercise 179
Incidents for discussion 179
case: friendly assisted living facility Program Plan—5 180
case: nutriStar 182
case: launching e‐collar 184
Bibliography 185viii  •  Contents
6 allocaTIng reSoUrceS To The ProjecT 186
6.1 expediting a Project 187
The critical Path Method 187
crashing a Project with excel 191
fast‐Tracking a Project 195
Project expediting in Practice 195
6.2 resource loading 196
The charismatic VP 202
6.3 resource leveling 202
resource loading/leveling and Uncertainty 209
6.4 allocating Scarce resources to Projects 211
Some comments about constrained resources 211
Some Priority rules 211
6.5 allocating Scarce resources to Several Projects 213
criteria of Priority rules 214
The Basic approach 215
resource allocation and the Project life cycle 215
6.6 goldratt’s Critical Chain 216
estimating Task Times 219
The effect of not reporting early activity completion 220
Multitasking 221
common chain of events 223
The critical chain 224
review Questions 225
discussion Questions 226
exercises 226
Incidents for discussion 228
case: friendly assisted living facility resource Usage—6 229
case: charter financial Bank 231
case: rand contractors 232
Bibliography 233
7 MonITorIng and conTrollIng The ProjecT 234
7.1 The Plan‐Monitor‐control cycle 234
designing the Monitoring System 236
7.2 data collection and reporting 237
data analysis 237
reporting and report Types 238
Meetings 240
Virtual Meetings, reports, and Project Management 241
7.3 earned Value 242
7.4 Project control 249
Purposes of control 249
7.5 designing the control System 251
Types of control Systems 252
Tools for control 254
Burnup and Burndown charts 257
7.6 Scope creep and change control 257
review Questions 259Contents •  ix
discussion Questions 260
exercises 260
Incidents for discussion 261
case: friendly assisted living facility case—7 263
friendly assisted living facility construction coordination meeting 4/11/X8 acTIon ITeM
lIST 265
case: Palmstar enterprises, Inc. 266
case: Peak lighting, Inc. 266
Bibliography 267
8 eValUaTIng and cloSIng The ProjecT 269
8.1 evaluation 269
evaluation criteria 270
Measurement 271
8.2 Project auditing 272
The audit Process 272
The audit report 274
8.3 Project closure 277
When to close a Project 277
Types of Project closure 278
The closure Process 279
The Project final report 281
review Questions 283
discussion Questions 283
Incidents for discussion 284
case: friendly assisted living facility case—8 284
case: datatech 287
case: Ivory Tower Systems 288
Bibliography 290
aPPendIX: ProBaBIlITy and STaTISTIc 291
a.1 Probability 291
Subjective Probability 292
logical Probability 292
experimental Probability 292
a.2 event relationships and Probability laws 292
The Multiplication rule 293
The addition rule 294
a.3 Statistics 294
descriptive versus Inferential Statistics 295
Measures of central Tendency 296
Measures of dispersion 297
Inferential Statistics 298
Standard Probability distributions 299
Bibliography 300
IndeX 301 .301
I n d e x
Aaron, 77
Abernathy, 16
Abram, 125
Ackoff, 249
Across-the-board cuts, 252
Action plan. See Planning
Activity. See also Scheduling
budgeting, 118
definition, 146
dummy, 148
pseudoactivity, 213–214
slack, 146, 151–152
time estimation. See also Time estimation
at the 90% and 95% levels, 156
deterministic, 146
expected time, 155
probabilistic (stochastic), 146, 155–158
standard deviation of, 155
variance of, 156
Activity-based costing, 114, 118
Activity-on-arrow (AOA), activity-on-node
(AON). See Scheduling
Adams, 242
Adler, 216
Afzalur, 64
Agile management, 3
Agile Manifesto, 92
Agile project management, 92—94, 257
comparison to waterfall approach, 93
Aggregate project plan, 22–23. See also
Project Portfolio Process
breakthrough projects, 23
derivative projects, 23
platform projects, 23
R&D projects, 23
Uses, 23
Amor, 121
Analytical approach, 35
Atlantic States Chemical Laboratories, 281
Auditing, 272–277
behavioral aspects, 273
financial vs. project audits, 272
process of, 272–274
reports, 274–276
types of, 272
Australia’s M5 East Tunnel, 96
Australian Parliament House project, 252
Badiru, 121
Baker, 277
Barr, 245
Baseline plan. See Planning
Benchmarking, 255, 270
Benefit realization management, 11
Beta distribution, 131, 155–156, 164
BetaPERT distribution, 133
Block, 57
Boeing, 39
Bolles, 57
Booz-Allen Hamilton, 146
Boston’s Big Dig, 125
Bracker, 76
Brainstorming, 78, 88
Bratta, 77
Brown, 88, 91
Budget. See also Cost
activity budgeting, 118
bottom-up, 113
budgeting in practice, 128–129
changes,
causes, 126
handling changes, 126
cuts, impact of, 114–116
defined, 109
life cycle, impact of, 114–116
methods of, 110–113
monitoring, 109
multiproject, 118
negotiation process, 114–116
program budgeting, 118
revision, 125–128
risk management, 27, 94–101
sub processes, 94–101
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
(FMEA), 95–96
Risk Priority Number (RPN), 96
top-down, 112, 116
uncertainty, 125–128
Burnup and burndown charts, 257
Business case, 74, 75302  •  Index
Buffers. See Critical chain
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 123, 128
Camm, 121
Central Arizona Project (CAP), 36
Central Limit Theorem. See Statistics
Change control board, 259
Change management, 11, 126
Change order, 79, 93, 126, 258
Charter. See Project charter
Christensen, 248, 255
Cincinnati Enquirer, 250, 251, 258
Cisco Systems, 25
Clark, 22
Commitment Assessment Matrix, 38–39
Comparative benefit selection method, 13
Communication plan, 39
Communications, 36–39
on virtual projects, 39–40
Conflict and conflict resolution, 2, 4, 34, 36,
37, 44, 47, 48, 57, 62–64, 64–65
and the life cycle, 62
dealing with, 45–46
intrateam, 62–64
matrix team, 61
project evaluation, 271
Conger, 45
Contingency plan, 42, 100
Control
benchmarking, 255
common mistakes, 252
definition, 234, 249
mechanisms of, 251
milestone status reports, 252
plan-monitor-control cycle, 234–236
project baseline, 80, 236, 242, 248
project management maturity model,
57–59, 255
purposes of, 251
system design, 251–257
tools for control, 254–257
control charts, 255, 256
critical ratio, 254–255
types of control systems, 252–253
go/no-go controls, 252
phase-gate controls, 252
post-project controls, 253
Cost. See also Budget
account numbers, 112
direct, 114
GS&A, 114
overhead, 114
perspectives on, 112
Cost estimation, 113–118, 118–125
direct cost (work element costing), 113
improving, 118–125
forms, 118–119
learning curve, 119–123
price information, 123
influence of organizational climate, 124
overhead costs, 112, 113
padding cost estimates, 219
Cost variance. See Earned value
Cox, 35, 217
CPM. See Scheduling
Crash duration, 187
Crashing a project. See Resource allocation
Critical chain, 216–225
definition, 224
early completion time
“not reporting” simulation, 220–221
example, 220–221
feeding buffer, 224–225
multitasking, 49, 221, 223
ProChain®, 236
project buffers, 224
student syndrome, 175, 212, 220, 223
Theory of Constraints, 217, 223
Critical path. See Scheduling
Critical Path Method (CPM).
See Scheduling
Critical time. See Scheduling
Crystal Ball®,* 129–137, See also, Simulation
Assumption cell, 131
CB User’s Group, 131
Distribution Gallery, 131, 132
fitting statistical distribution to data, 237
Forecast cell, 131
simulation,
project selection, 129–137
networks, 164–166, 218–221
not reporting early task completion,
220–221
Decision Science Institute, (aka: American
Institute of Decision Science), 249
Decision table (payoff matrix). See Risk
management
Delphi Method, 24
Design Structure Matrix (DSM), 91–92
Oracle’s Crystal Ball® is referenced frequently throughout the book, and page entries will not be cited except for discussions of the use of the software.Index •  303 Ditch Witch, 187 Discounted cash flows, 14–16 Dupont de Nemours, 146 Dvir, 270, 278 Earned value, 242–248 actual cost of work performed (AC), 243 baseline plan. See Planning budget at completion (BAC), 244 conventions for calculations, 243 cost performance index (CPI), 244 cost (spending) variance, 244–245 definition, 242 estimated (cost) at completion (EAC), 244 estimated (cost) to complete (ETC), 244 MSP calculations, 245–248 differences from PMI standards, 248 MSP estimate at completion (EAC), 248 MSP variance at completion (VAC), 248 planned (budgeted) cost of the work performed (EV), 242 planned (budgeted) cost of the work scheduled (PV), 243 schedule performance index (SPI), 244 schedule variance, 243 Emotional intelligence (EQ), 43–44 Enterprise project management. See Projectoriented organization Eppinger, 66 Ethics, 18, 48, 56, 124 Evaluation, 269–271 conflict, 271 criteria for success, 270–271 measurement, 271 definition, 269 post-project evaluation, 270 Evans, 121 Event (node) definition, 146 Excel®, calculating probabilities, 161–162 crashing a project with, 191–194 resource loading display, 209 Solver, use of, 154 Expected value. See Risk management Fast tracking, 65, 195, 196 Fendley, 214 Flemming, 245 Flexibility, 9, 48, 56 Float, See Slack Flynn, 39 Ford, 79 Free slack, 154 Functional project organization. See Organization Gagnon, 41, 115 Gale, 25, 51 Gantt chart. See Scheduling General Electric Co., 13 Global competition, 3 Goldratt, 35, 173, 212, 216, 220 Gozinto chart, 81 Graham, 255 Grumman Aircraft. See NorthrupGrumman Gupta, 255 Hamburger, 112 Harwell, 250 Hayes, 16 Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), 112 Hertz, 96 Hertzberg, 60 Hierarchical planning process. See Planning Hurdle rate of return, 14, 15, 129 Hurricane Katrina, 136 Hussain, 217 Hyer, 88, 91 Ibbs, 57, 255 Ingram, 248, 278 Integration management, 64–65 Iron triangle, 7 ISO 9001, 59 Iterations, See Sprints Johnson Controls, 257, 270 Jones, 48 Kamburowksi, 155 Kandt, 257 Keefer, 155 Kilmann, 45 Kimball, 281 Koppleman, 245 Knutson, 77 Kurstedt, 100 Kurtulus, 195 Kwak, 59, 255 Labor pools, 206 Langley, 74304  •  Index Last Minute Panic (LMP), 250 Launch meeting. See Project launch meeting Lawrence, 123, 154 Leads and lags, 174, 213 Lean management, 92 Learning curve, 119–123 Learning rate, 121 Lencioni, 60, 64, 65 Levy, 270, 278 Life cycle, 10–11, 21, 43 budget, impact on, 114–116 managerial focus, 10–11 resource allocation, impact on, 215–216 S-shaped, 10 J-shaped, 11 Limerick nuclear power generator, 114 Line balancing, 210 Lockheed Martin Corp., 146 Logic chart, 100 Lubianiker, 59 Mallak, 100 Manage by exception, 4 Management by projects. See Project oriented management Mandelbaum, 216 Mantel, 41, 115, 277, 281 Martin, 77, 123 Matrix management. See Organization McCarthy, 116–117, 118, 124 McLaughlin, 79 McMahon, 172 Meetings, 40–41, 77–80, 240–242 guidelines, 240–241 launch. See Project launch meeting Meredith, 210, 237 Micromanagement, 36, 83, 187 Microsoft Excel®. See Excel®
Microsoft Livemeeting®, 241
Microsoft Project® (MSP),
earned value. See also Earned value
calculations, 248
Gantt charts, 170–172, 197, 200, 213
strengths and weaknesses, 172
multiple project scheduling, 213–216
project calendar, 159, 196
reports, 240, 241
resource leveling, 202–210
resource loading, 196–202
loading display, 201
resource loading, leveling reports,
202–210
tracking a project, 236
use to build networks, 152–154
use to plan, 84–86
Microsoft Word®, 240
Milestone, 146, 152, 172, 236, 252
definition, 146
Mind mapping. See Planning
Mission, 3
Mixed form. See Organization
Monitoring
baseline, 236, 242, 243, 248
benefits of, 239
definition, 234
earned value. See Earned value
meetings, 240–242
objectives of, 234
plan-monitor-control cycle, 234–236
system design, 236
reports, 238–240
report timing, 238
types of, 239
tracking a project, 236
Monte Carlo simulation. See Crystal Ball®
and Simulation
Multidisciplinary, 2, 5, 34
Multiple projects, 118
budgeting, 118
resource allocation and scheduling,
213–216. See also Resource
allocation
Multitasking. See Critical chain
Mythical man month, 124
Name-only team, 64
Narula, 195
NASA, 116
National Association of Industrial and Office
Properties, 58
Negotiation, 5–6, 44–46, 61, 64, 86
budget, 114–116
life cycle, impact of, 115–116
lose-lose, 5—6, 46
plan, 86
win-lose, 5–6, 45, 64
win-win, 5–6, 44–45, 46, 64, 115
Net present value. See Discounted cash
flows
*Microsoft Excel® is referenced so frequently throughout the book, that page entries will not be cited except
for discussions on the use of the software.Index •  305
Network. See Scheduling
Nguyen, 216
Nippon Sanso, Inc., 65
Nixon, 252
Node. See Event
Northrop-Grumman Corp., 43
Nucor Corp., 279, 281
Operating/Competitive Necessity selection
method, 13
Opportunity cost of capital, 16–18
Organization (of projects)
functional, 53–54, 55, 56
matrix, 54–57
advantages, 55–56
balanced, 55
disadvantages, 56–57
strong, 55
weak, 55
mixed form, 57
pure project, 52–53, 54, 55, 56
Ortec International, 281
Participatory decision making/ management,
35, 79, 86, 113, 114–116
Paralysis by analysis, 74
Pasternak, 154
Path. See Scheduling
Pennypacker, 59
Patzak, 100
Pells, 76
People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals
(PETA), 76
Persuasion, 45
PERT. See Scheduling
Peters, 74
Pinto, 60, 277
Plan-monitor-control cycle, 234–236
Planning
project plan, 4, 5, 10, 75–76, 145
baseline plan, 80, 236, 242, 243
contents of plan, 75–76
hierarchical planning process,
80–83
process, 76–86
rolling wave planning, 76
sequence (steps to plan), 76–77
templates, 76–77, 83, 85
whole-brain approach, 88–91
mind mapping, 88–91
work breakdown structure (WBS), 75,
80–83, 109, 113
process of constructing, 80–83
extensions of WBS, 83–86
forms, 83, 85
PM Network, 51
PM3, 59
Portfolio management. See Aggregate
project plan
Post-project evaluation. See Evaluation
Power-Interest Grid, 38
Precedence diagramming. See Scheduling
Precedence of tasks, 84
Prentis, 76
Probability, 291–292
definition, 291
event relationships, 292–293
addition rule, 294
multiplication rule, 293–294
laws, 292–294
standard distributions, 299–300
types of, 291–292
Procter & Gamble, 2
Product scope, 4
Program, 2, 35
budgeting, 118
Program evaluation and review technique
(PERT). See Scheduling
Project
as a system, 35
breakthrough, 23
budgeting compared to standard
budgeting, 5
calendar, 159
characteristics, 2
Charter, 74–76
definition, 2
derivative, 23
goals (scope), 7–9
time, cost scope, 7–9
quality, 7
milestones, 146, 152, 236, 252
owner, 3, 11
platform, 23
portfolio, 21–25
purpose of, 2
quality, See Project, goals
R&D, 23
resource constrained, 187
reports. See Monitoring
slack, 151–152
time constrained, 187
vs. nonprojects, 4–5
Project audit. See Auditing
Project champion, 11, 78
Project charter, 74–75306  •  Index
Project closure, 277–282
criteria for, 277–278
project failure, 278
project success, 270, 278
project final report (history),
238, 281–282
contents of, 282
manager, 280, 222
process, 279–281
timing of, 277–278
types of, 278–279
Project control. See Control
Project evaluation. See Evaluation
Project final report. See Project closure
Project history (project final report),
238, 281–282
Projectitis, 53, 54, 56
Project launch meeting, 33, 77–79
outcomes of, 79
Project management maturity, 3, 59
Project Management Body of Knowledge
(PMBOK), 2, 4, 8, 10, 18, 21, 34,
39, 50, 51, 59, 75, 80, 86, 94, 112,
125, 129, 238, 244, 248, 255, 258
Project Management Institute (PMI), 2, 18,
48, 50, 94, 125, 248
PMI Certification, 51, 94
PMI Code of Ethics, 18, 48, 99, 124
Project Management Journal, 50
Project management maturity model, 59, 255
Project management office (PMO), 3, 8, 22,
57, 80
Enterprise project management office
(EPMO) (aka: Corporate proj. mgt.
office, CPMO), 58, 80
Project management v. general management,
4–6
Project manager
authority, 4–6
career, 34, 50–51
responsibilities, 4–6, 36, 41–46
acquiring resources, 41–42
firefighting, 42
leadership, 42–44
making trade-offs, 42–43
negotiation, conflict resolution,
persuasion, 44–46
roles, 34–41
communicator, 36–39
facilitator, 34–36
primary role, 8, 9
v. supervisor 34–35
selection of, 11–21, 46–50
required characteristics, 46–50
credibility, 47
sensitivity, interpersonal and
political, 47, 60
Project monitoring. See Monitoring
Project office. See Project management office
Project oriented organization, 2, 50
Project Portfolio Process, 21–25. See also
Aggregate project planning
Project Council, 22, 25
Project scope, 4, 7, 75, 77, 79, 126, 129,
234, 257–259
Project selection, 11–21, 234
non-numeric methods, 12–13
comparative benefits, 13
operating/competitive necessity, 13
sacred cow, 12–13
numeric methods, 13–21
financial assessment, 13–18
payback period, 14
discounted cash flow, 14–18
financial options and opportunity
costs, 16–18
scoring methods, 19–21
unweighted 0–1 method, 18
weighted factor method, 19–21, 22
risk management, 129–137
simulation, 129–137
Project sponsor, 11, 40, 58, 60
Project success, 270, 278. See also Evaluation
Project team, 59–66. See also
Multidisciplinary teams
characteristics of effective team, 59–60
matrix team problems, 61
Project termination. See Project closure
Project uncertainty. See Risk management
Pseudoactivities, 213–214
Pure project. See Organization
Q-sort, 13
Quasi-projects, 3
Queues (waiting lines), 215
length of queue, formula, 215
Q-sort, 13
RACI Matrix, 86–87
Random number generation. See Excel®
and Crystal Ball®
Reif, 76
Reith, 257
Remy, 59Index •  307
Required rate of return. See Hurdle
rate of return
Resource allocation. See also Scheduling
borrowing resources, 216
constrained resources, 211
priority rules, 211–212
criteria for choice, 214–215
Walts, 211, 214, 223
Critical Path Method (CPM), 187–196
crashing a project, 187–196
descheduling, 216
expediting in practice, 195–196
life cycle, impact of, 216
multiple projects, 213–216
multiple project scheduling, 213–216
using Microsoft Project®, 214
priority rules, 211–212, 214–215, 216
resource availability calendar,
196, 198, 202
resource leveling, 202–210
using Microsoft Project®, 202–209
under uncertainty, 209–210
resource loading, 196–202
Microsoft Project® display, 201
monitoring, 202
under uncertainty, 209–210
resource loading, leveling reports, 202–209
resource pools, 206
resource usage
standard practice, 187–188
Resource calendar. See Resource allocation
Resource constraints. See Resource allocation
Resource leveling. See Resource allocation
Resource loading. See Resource allocation
Responsible, Accountable, Consult,
Informed matrix. See RACI matrix
Return on investment, 14
Risk analysis, 8, 94, 129
Risk management, 94–101, 129–137
contingency planning, 100
decision table (payoff matrix), 97–99
disaster, 136
expected value, 97–99, 136
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
(FMEA), 95–96
Risk Priority Number (RPN), 96
outcome estimates, 97
path merge calculation problem, 163
probability of path (project)
completion, 159–161
probabilistic activity times, 156–158
qualitative risk analysis, 94, 95
quantitative risk analysis, 94, 96–99
risk identification, 94, 95
scenario analysis, 95
risk management planning, 94
risk monitoring and control, 100–101
risk profile, 9, 96, 129
risk register, 8
risk response, 100
scheduling, 155–163
simulation. See Simulation
uncertain activity times. See Activity
uncertainty of critical path and time, 157
San Francisco Metro Turnback project, 250
Sacred cow selection method, 12–13
Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX), 112
Schedule variance. See Earned value
Scheduling. See also Activity
computer, use of, 152–154, 158–159
crashing a project. See Resource
Allocation
critical path, 146, 149–151, 174, 188
definition, 146
critical path method (CPM), 146–151,
187–194. See also Resource
Allocation
critical time, 146, 149–151, 188
definition, 146
definition of terms, 145–146
earliest start (finish) time (ES, EF),
149–151
Gantt chart, 170–172, 197, 200, 222
construction of, 170
strengths and weaknesses, 172
using MSP, 171–172
latest start (finish) time (LS, LF), 149–151
Microsoft Project
constructing network, 152–154,
158–159
constructing Gantt chart, 171–172
precedence diagramming, 173–174
multiple projects. See Resource allocation
network (AOA and AON), 147
construction, 147–148
definition, 146
slack, 151–152
path merge problem, 163
precedence diagramming, 173–174
linkages defined, 173–174
probability of project or path completion,
159–161
project (network) slack, 152308  •  Index
program evaluation and review technique
(PERT), 98, 146–152
simulating a schedule. See Simulation
slack calculation, 151–152
free slack, 154
total slack, 154
sources of problems for schedules, 223–224
Schwerer, 216
Scope creep (change), 37, 42, 61, 76, 116
change control system, 257–259
control of change, 257–259
reasons for, 126, See also Project selection
Selection. See Project selection
Shafer, 210, 237
Sheffi, 136
Shenhar, 47–48, 270, 278
Simulation. See also Crystal Ball®
Monte Carlo simulation, 8, 99, 129–137,
164–170, 218–221
Incorporating costs, 166–167
project network simulation Crystal
Ball®, 164–170
vs. statistical analysis, 167–170
Simon, 96
Slack (aka: float). See Scheduling and
Activity
Slevin, 60
Smith, 77
Sprints, 92, 93
Stakeholder, 37, 75, 76, 93
identifying and analyzing needs, 37—39
issue log, 38
register, 38
Statistical Quality Control, 237
Statistics, 294–300
Central Limit Theorem, 160, 308
descriptive statistics, 295–296
inferential statistics, 295–296
measures of central tendency: mean,
median, mode, 296–297
measures of dispersion
range, 297
sample mean, 296
sample standard deviation, 297
sample variance, 297
path merge probability calculation, 163
population mean (μ), 296
population standard deviation (σ), 297
population variance (σ2), 297
statistical independence, 169
Strategy, 1, 3, 8
Stress, 48–49
Student syndrome, 175, 212, 220, 223
Suboptimization, 35, 47, 54, 56, 65
Subtask, 2
Superconducting supercollider (SSC), 279
Systems approach, 35–36
Systems engineering. See Concurrent
engineering
Task, 2
predecessors, successors, 83–86
Tate, 77
Teplitz, 121
Texas Instruments Inc., 248
Thamhain, 62, 63
Theory of Constraints, 217, 223
Thermos Co., 65
Thomas, 45, 96
Time estimation
at the 90% and 95% levels, 156
deterministic, 146
expected time, 155
improving, 118–125
learning curve, 119–123
probabilistic (stochastic), 155–158
standard deviation of, 155
variance of, 156
3M Corp., 279
Toney, 255
Trade-offs, 7–9, 37, 42–43, 94
influence of organizational climate on,
42–43
project vs. project, 213–216
resources vs. time, 187–196
Transdisciplinary teams. See
Multidisciplinary teams
Trends in Project Management, 3
Triangular distribution, 131
Triple constraints, 7
Trust, 40
Tuckman, 60
Uncertainty, 7–9, 129–137, 125–128. See also
Risk management
United Kingdom Child Support Agency, 259
United States Department of Commerce, 123
United States Federal Transportation
Security Administration, 58
United States Navy, 146
Unity of Command, 56
Verdini, 155
ViewStar Corporation, 248
Virtual projects, 3, 39
Scheduling (cont.)Index •  309
Virtual projects manager, 39–40
communications, 39–40
meetings. See Monitoring
reports. See Monitoring
Walt Disney Co., 61
Walts, 211, 214, 223
War room, 61. See also Project management
office
Waterfall method, 65, 93
comparison to Agile Project
Management, 93
Wearne, 217
Webster, 76
Wheatly, 24, 116, 278
Wheelwright, 22
Whole-brain planning, See Planning
Wilemon, 63
Win-win, 5–6, 44–45, 46, 64, 115
Womer, 121
Work breakdown structure (WBS).
See Planning
World Trade Center, 136
Wu, 250

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