Maintenance, Replacement, and Reliability – Theory and Applications – 2nd Edition

Maintenance, Replacement, and Reliability – Theory and Applications – 2nd Edition
اسم المؤلف
Andrew K.S. Jardine , Albert H.c. tsang
التاريخ
25 مايو 2024
المشاهدات
155
التقييم
(لا توجد تقييمات)
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Maintenance, Replacement, and Reliability – Theory and Applications – 2nd Edition
Andrew K.S. Jardine , Albert H.c. tsang
Contents
Preface for the First Edition .xv
Preface for the Second Edition xvii
Acknowledgments for the First Edition xix
Acknowledgments for the Second Edition xxi
Authors . xxiii
Abstract xxv
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 From Maintenance Management to Physical Asset
Management 1
1.2 Challenges of PAM 2
1.2.1 Emerging Trends of Operation Strategies 2
1.2.2 Toughening Societal Expectations .2
1.2.3 Technological Changes .2
1.2.4 Increased Emphasis on Sustainability 3
1.3 Improving PAM .4
1.3.1 Maintenance Excellence .4
1.3.1.1 Strategic 5
1.3.1.2 Tactical 5
1.3.1.3 Continuous Improvements 6
1.3.2 Quantum Leaps 6
1.4 PAS 55—A Framework for Optimized Management of
Physical Assets 6
1.5 Reliability through the Operator: TPM .7
1.6 Reliability by Design: RCM 9
1.7 Optimizing Maintenance and Replacement Decisions . 13
1.8 The Quantitative Approach . 16
1.8.1 Setting Objectives . 17
1.8.2 Models 18
1.8.3 Obtaining Solutions from Models 21
1.8.4 Maintenance Control and Mathematical Models .22
1.9 Data Requirements for Modeling 24
References 24
Chapter 2 Component Replacement Decisions .27
2.1 Introduction .27
2.2 Optimal Replacement Times for Equipment Whose
Operating Cost Increases with Use .30
2.2.1 Statement of the Problem .30viii Contents
2.2.2 Construction of the Model 31
2.2.3 Numerical Example 33
2.2.4 Further Comments .34
2.2.5 Applications 36
2.2.5.1 Replacing the Air Filter in an Automobile .36
2.2.5.2 Overhauling a Boiler Plant .37
2.3 Stochastic Preventive Replacement: Some Introductory
Comments 38
2.4 Optimal Preventive Replacement Interval of Items
Subject to Breakdown (Also Known as the Group or
Block Policy) 39
2.4.1 Statement of the Problem .39
2.4.2 Construction of the Model 40
2.4.3 Determination of H(t) . 41
2.4.3.1 Renewal Theory Approach . 41
2.4.3.2 Discrete Approach 43
2.4.4 Numerical Example 46
2.4.5 Further Comments . 47
2.4.6 An Application: Optimal Replacement Interval
for a Left-Hand Steering Clutch .48
2.5 Optimal Preventive Replacement Age of an Item Subject
to Breakdown .48
2.5.1 Statement of the Problem .48
2.5.2 Construction of the Model 49
2.5.3 Numerical Example 52
2.5.4 Further Comments . 53
2.5.5 An Application: Optimal Bearing
Replacement Age .54
2.6 Optimal Preventive Replacement Age of an Item Subject
to Breakdown, Taking Account of the Times Required to
Carry Out Failure and Preventive Replacements 55
2.6.1 Statement of the Problem . 55
2.6.2 Construction of the Model 55
2.6.3 Numerical Example 56
2.7 Optimal Preventive Replacement Interval or Age of an
Item Subject to Breakdown: Minimization of Downtime . 57
2.7.1 Statement of the Problem . 57
2.7.2 Construction of the Models 58
2.7.2.1 Model 1: Determination of Optimal
Preventive Replacement Interval 58
2.7.2.2 Model 2: Determination of Optimal
Preventive Replacement Age 59
2.7.3 Numerical Examples 59
2.7.3.1 Model 1: Replacement Interval . 59
2.7.3.2 Model 2: Replacement Age .60
2.7.4 Further Comments . 61Contents ix
2.7.5 Applications 61
2.7.5.1 Replacement of Sugar Refinery Cloths . 61
2.7.5.2 Replacement of Sugar Feeds in a Sugar
Refinery 62
2.8 Group Replacement: Optimal Interval between Group
Replacements of Items Subject to Failure—The Lamp
Replacement Problem 62
2.8.1 Statement of the Problem . 62
2.8.2 Construction of the Model 63
2.8.3 Numerical Example 64
2.8.4 Further Comments .64
2.8.5 An Application: Optimal Replacement Interval
for a Group of 40 Valves in a Compressor .64
2.9 Further Replacement Models 65
2.9.1 Multistage Replacement .65
2.9.2 Optional Policies 66
2.9.3 Repairable Systems 67
2.10 Case Study on Project Prioritization, Trend Tests,
Weibull Analysis, and Optimizing Component
Replacement Intervals .70
2.10.1 Introduction 70
2.10.2 Optimal Preventive Replacement Age for Major
Components 70
2.10.3 Optimal Preventive Replacement Age for Item
Parts (Minor Components) . 71
2.10.4 Conclusion for Item Parts . 76
2.11 Spare Parts Provisioning: Preventive Replacement Spares . 76
2.11.1 Introduction 76
2.11.2 Construction of the Model 77
2.11.2.1 The Constant Interval Model 77
2.11.2.2 The Age-Based Preventive
Replacement Model 77
2.11.3 Numerical Example 77
2.11.3.1 Constant-Interval Policy .77
2.11.3.2 Age-Based Policy 78
2.11.4 Further Comments . 78
2.11.5 An Application: Cylinder Head Replacement—
Constant-Interval Policy . 78
2.12 Spare Parts Provisioning: Insurance Spares 78
2.12.1 Introduction 78
2.12.2 Classes of Components 79
2.12.2.1 Nonrepairable Components 79
2.12.2.2 Normal Distribution Approach .80
2.12.2.3 Poisson Distribution Approach .80
2.12.2.4 Repairable Components 81
2.12.3 Cost Model .83x Contents
2.12.4 Further Comments .83
2.12.5 An Application: Electric Motors 83
2.13 Solving the Constant-Interval and Age-Based Models
Graphically: Use of Glasser’s Graphs 85
2.13.1 Introduction 85
2.13.2 Using Glasser’s Graphs 86
2.13.3 Numerical Example 87
2.13.4 Calculation of the Savings 88
2.14 Solving the Constant-Interval and Age-Based Models
Using OREST Software 89
2.14.1 Introduction 89
2.14.2 Using OREST .89
2.14.3 Further Comments . 91
Problems . 91
References 99
Chapter 3 Inspection Decisions 101
3.1 Introduction . 101
3.2 Optimal Inspection Frequency: Maximization of Profit . 101
3.2.1 Statement of the Problem . 101
3.2.2 Construction of the Model 103
3.2.3 Numerical Example 106
3.2.4 Further Comments . 107
3.3 Optimal Inspection Frequency: Minimization of Downtime . 108
3.3.1 Statement of the Problem . 108
3.3.2 Construction of the Model 108
3.3.3 Numerical Example 109
3.3.4 Further Comments . 109
3.3.5 An Application: Optimal Vehicle Fleet
Inspection Schedule . 110
3.4 Optimal Inspection Interval to Maximize the Availability
of Equipment Used in Emergency Conditions, Such as a
Protective Device . 112
3.4.1 Statement of the Problem . 112
3.4.2 Construction of the Model 113
3.4.3 Numerical Example 114
3.4.4 Further Comments . 115
3.4.5 Exponential Failure Distribution and Negligible
Time Required to Perform Inspections and
Repairs/Replacements 116
3.4.6 An Application: Pressure Safety Valves in an Oil
and Gas Field 116
3.5 Optimizing CBM Decisions 118
3.5.1 Introduction 118
3.5.2 The Proportional Hazards Model . 119Contents xi
3.5.3 Blending Hazard and Economics: Optimizing
the CBM Decision 120
3.5.4 Applications 122
3.5.4.1 Food Processing: Use of Vibration
Monitoring 122
3.5.4.2 Coal Mining: Use of Oil Analysis 123
3.5.4.3 Transportation: Use of Visual Inspection .123
3.5.5 Further Comments . 123
3.5.6 Software for CBM Optimization 125
3.5.6.1 Event Data . 127
Problems . 129
References 133
Chapter 4 Capital Equipment Replacement Decisions . 135
4.1 Introduction . 135
4.2 Optimal Replacement Interval for Capital Equipment:
Minimization of Total Cost . 137
4.2.1 Statement of the Problem . 137
4.2.2 Construction of the Model 137
4.2.3 Numerical Example 138
4.2.4 Further Comments . 139
4.2.5 Applications 141
4.2.5.1 Mobile Equipment: Vehicle Fleet
Replacement 141
4.2.5.2 Fixed Equipment: Internal Combustion
Engine . 143
4.3 Optimal Replacement Interval for Capital Equipment:
Maximization of Discounted Benefits . 144
4.3.1 Statement of the Problem . 144
4.3.2 Construction of the Model 144
4.3.2.1 First Cycle of Operation . 146
4.3.2.2 Second Cycle of Operation . 146
4.3.2.3 Third Cycle of Operation 147
4.3.2.4 nth Cycle of Operation 147
4.3.3 Numerical Example 148
4.3.4 Further Comments . 149
4.3.5 Proof that Optimization over a Long Period Is
Not Equivalent to Optimization per Unit Time
When Discounting Is Included . 150
4.4 Optimal Replacement Interval for Capital Equipment
Whose Planned Utilization Pattern Is Variable:
Minimization of Total Cost . 151
4.4.1 Statement of the Problem . 151
4.4.2 Construction of the Model 151
4.4.2.1 Consider a Replacement Cycle of n Years . 152xii Contents
4.4.3 Numerical Example 153
4.4.4 Further Comments . 156
4.4.5 An Application: Establishing the Economic Life
of a Fleet of Buses 156
4.5 Optimal Replacement Policy for Capital Equipment
Taking into Account Technological Improvement: Finite
Planning Horizon 157
4.5.1 Statement of the Problem . 157
4.5.2 Construction of the Model 157
4.5.3 Numerical Example 159
4.5.4 Further Comments . 161
4.5.5 An Application: Replacing Current Mining
Equipment with a Technologically Improved
Version 161
4.6 Optimal Replacement Policy for Capital Equipment
Taking into Account Technological Improvement:
Infinite Planning Horizon 161
4.6.1 Statement of the Problem . 161
4.6.2 Construction of the Model 162
4.6.3 Numerical Example 163
4.6.4 Further Comments . 164
4.6.5 An Application: Repair versus Replace of a
Front-End Loader . 164
4.7 Software for Economic Life Optimization 166
4.7.1 Introduction 166
4.7.2 Using PERDEC and AGE/CON . 167
4.7.3 Further Comments . 167
Problems . 168
References 177
Chapter 5 Maintenance Resource Requirements 179
5.1 Introduction . 179
5.1.1 Facilities for Maintenance within an Organization .179
5.1.2 The Combined Use of the Facilities within an
Organization and Outside Resources . 180
5.2 Queuing Theory Preliminaries 181
5.2.1 Queuing Systems 182
5.2.2 Queuing Theory Results . 183
5.2.2.1 Single-Channel Queuing System 183
5.2.2.2 Multichannel Queuing Systems 183
5.3 Optimal Number of Workshop Machines to Meet a
Fluctuating Workload 183
5.3.1 Statement of the Problem . 183
5.3.2 Construction of the Model 184
5.3.3 Numerical Example 185Contents xiii
5.3.4 Further Comments . 188
5.3.5 Applications 188
5.3.5.1 Optimizing the Backlog 188
5.3.5.2 Crew Size Optimization . 189
5.4 Optimal Mix of Two Classes of Similar Equipment (Such as
Medium/Large Lathes) to Meet a Fluctuating Workload 190
5.4.1 Statement of the Problem . 190
5.4.2 Construction of the Model 190
5.4.2.1 Logic Flowchart 191
5.4.2.2 Obtaining Necessary Information and
Constructing the Model 191
5.4.3 Numerical Example 193
5.4.4 Further Comments .200
5.4.5 Applications 201
5.4.5.1 Establishing the Optimal Number of
Lathes in a Steel Mill 201
5.4.5.2 Balancing Maintenance Cost and
Reliability in Thermal Generating
Station .203
5.5 Rightsizing a Fleet of Equipment: An Application .205
5.5.1 An Application: Fleet Size in an Open-Pit Mine .205
5.6 Optimal Size of a Maintenance Workforce to Meet a
Fluctuating Workload, Taking Account of Subcontracting
Opportunities .206
5.6.1 Statement of the Problem .206
5.6.2 Construction of the Model 207
5.6.3 Numerical Example 210
5.6.4 Further Comments . 211
5.6.5 An Example: Number of Vehicles to Have in a
Fleet (Such as a Courier Fleet) . 212
5.7 The Lease or Buy Decision . 213
5.7.1 Statement of the Problem . 213
5.7.2 Solution of the Problem 213
5.7.2.1 Use of Retained Earnings . 213
5.7.2.2 Use of Borrowed Funds 214
5.7.2.3 Leasing 215
5.7.2.4 Conclusion 216
5.7.3 Further Comments . 216
Problems . 216
References 217
Appendix 1: Statistics Primer . 219
Appendix 2: Weibull Analysis . 233
Appendix 3: Maximum Likelihood Estimator 275
Appendix 4: Markov Chains . 279xiv Contents
Appendix 5: Knowledge Elicitation 283
Appendix 6: Time Value of Money—Discounted Cash Flow Analysis .295
Appendix 7: List of Applications of Maintenance Decision Optimization
Models .305
Appendix 8: Ordinates of the Standard Normal Distribution 309
Appendix 9: Areas in the Tail of the Standard Normal Distribution . 311
Appendix 10: Values of Gamma Function . 315
Appendix 11: Median Ranks Table 317
Appendix 12: Five Percent Ranks Table 319
Appendix 13: Ninety-Five Percent Ranks Table . 321
Appendix 14: Critical Values for the Kolmogorov–Smirnov Statistic (dα) . 323
Appendix 15: Answers to Problems . 325

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